Health Policy - Pharmaceuticals

Drug-Program Research and Forecasting

Acumen has a proven track record of delivering effective research services to a wide range of clients. While the market for medical, pharmaceutical, and insurance products is complex, we offer analysis and customized data products that help decision-makers understand the inherent market characteristics and risks. Our team of professionals includes economists, analysts, and programmers who are skilled in the use of large-scale administrative data sources to formulate concrete solutions to complicated problems. By basing our research and forecasts on sound empirical foundations, we provide our public and private sector clients a data-driven view of their business.

Current and Recent Projects

Antiretroviral Utilization and Clinical Outcomes among US Veterans Infected with HIV-1

The primary objective of this project is to describe the utilization patterns and outcomes associated with antiretroviral (ARV) therapy among US Veterans infected with HIV-1 during the last 10 years. We also intend to develop data collection and analytic processes that facilitate ongoing monitoring of patterns of care and outcomes. The project relies on the Immunology Case Registry (ICR), an administrative database containing information on the medical experiences of all HIV-infected individuals using services of the Veterans Health Administration (VHA), the largest provider of HIV care in the United States. The database was established in 1992 and contains information on more than 50,000 Veterans. To date, we have completed a comprehensive descriptive analysis of the utilization of ARV therapy by HIV-infected veterans between 1992 and 2003. Currently, we are examining how these treatment patterns are related to clinical outcomes.

• Funded by: Department of Veterans Affairs

HRSA AIDS Drug Assistance Program Forecasting

The AIDS Drug Assistance Program (ADAP) is a Federal program funded under the Ryan White Care Act (RWCA) to provide life-saving drugs to low-income AIDS patients. Managed by the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), total appropriations for the program have increased steadily from approximately $200 million in 1991 to almost $2 billion in 2002. Due to the explosive growth in expenditures, HRSA needed guidance developing expenditure forecasts and acquiring in-house forecasting capacity.

Acumen staff designed, estimated, and implemented a framework that models monthly expenditure flows based on HRSA’s administrative data. Using time-series techniques, this model served as the basis for a two-year forecast of annual ADAP expenditures. These results helped shape HRSA's discussion with other federal agencies, including the Office of Management and Budget, concerning future funding levels of ADAPs. The framework was ultimately incorporated into software that enables HRSA staff to easily update the forecast as new data becomes available.

• Funded by: HRSA HIV/AIDS Bureau